PERBANDINGAN AKURASI PERAMALAN HARGA CABAI MERAH ANTARA MODEL ARIMAX DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DI KABUPATEN BANYUMAS

Neo, Mauizan Ali Fitrah (2024) PERBANDINGAN AKURASI PERAMALAN HARGA CABAI MERAH ANTARA MODEL ARIMAX DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DI KABUPATEN BANYUMAS. Undergraduate Thesis thesis, Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto.

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Abstract

The fluctuating prices of red chili peppers in Banyumas Regency from January 2017 to June 2024 highlight the need for accurate forecasting analysis. This study aims to model the prices of red chili peppers in Banyumas Regency using the ARIMAX model and the Exponential Smoothing method. Historical price data from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center were analyzed using both models. The ARIMAX model incorporates exogenous variables such as months containing the events of Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha, while Exponential Smoothing utilizes the Holt’s Winter model for forecasting. The results show that ARIMAX provides more accurate forecasts compared to Holt’s Winter. Forecasting metric evaluations, including Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), indicate that ARIMAX performs better in predicting red chili pepper prices in Banyumas Regency with a MAPE of 16.93%, whereas the Holt’s Winter model records a MAPE of 50.63%. This study also aims to compare the accuracy of predictions from the price forecasting of red chili peppers using both methods. The benefits of this research for researchers include the development of scientific knowledge in predicting red chili pepper prices using the ARIMAX and Exponential Smoothing methods. For readers, the results of the forecasting accuracy of the ARIMAX and Exponential Smoothing models can serve as a reference regarding the research objects and methods used, thus providing inspiration. Keywords: ARIMAX, Exponential Smoothing, Red Chili Price Forecasting, Banyumas Regency, Time Series

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