PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE UNTUK PERAMALAN STOK OBAT : STUDI KASUS DI PUSKESMAS BOJONGSARI

ASEP, SURYA (2019) PENERAPAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE UNTUK PERAMALAN STOK OBAT : STUDI KASUS DI PUSKESMAS BOJONGSARI. Undergraduate Thesis thesis, Institut Telkom Purwokerto.

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Abstract

ABSTRACT Health is one of the important assets that must be guarded by humans. With the existence of healt, humans are able to do maximal activity, but that be supported by several factors such as exercise, healthy food, clean water, and facilities of community services in the health sector such as hospitals, clinics and health centers. Along with the population growth in Indonesia, then more of the Jaminan Kesehatan Negara (JKN), the increasing number of JKN participants will have an impact on the demand for drugs. Because of the frequent increase of patiens in certain months at Bojongsari health center, the stock of drugs also have emptiness in that month. Therefore, this study was conducted by comparing two methods between Double Exponential Smoothing and Single Moving Average. This research do several stages such a data testing and making determination pattern. So that can determine in the right method to deal with these problems. To see the results of drug stock forecasting. This research was conducted by taking data samples of 30 units. The period used amounted to 48 months from 2013 until 2016. The results of forecasting accuracy are measured using MAPE (Mean Absolute Presentage Error) and MSE (Mean Squance Error) which shows that the Single Moving Average method gives the more accurate results (MAPE = 76.66% and MSE = 66.66%) compared to Double Exponential Smoothing method. The next is the forecasting that has been made. Be Implemented into a website so that it can be used for forecast the drug stocks. Keywords: Forecasting, Drug Stock, Single Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing.

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