Perbandingan Metode Holt Winter's Exponential Smoothing dan ARIMA Pada Peramalan Data Jumlah Pengunjung di Lokawisata Baturraden

Nadia, Putri Anggraeni (2024) Perbandingan Metode Holt Winter's Exponential Smoothing dan ARIMA Pada Peramalan Data Jumlah Pengunjung di Lokawisata Baturraden. Undergraduate Thesis thesis, Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto.

	Text Cover.pdf Download (1MB)
	Text Abstrak.pdf Download (557kB)
	Text Abstract.pdf Download (460kB)
	Text BAB I.pdf Download (565kB)
	Text BAB II.pdf Download (909kB)
	Text BAB III.pdf Download (1MB)
	Text BAB IV.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (1MB)
	Text BAB V.pdf Download (361kB)
	Text Daftar Pustaka.pdf Download (450kB)
	Text Lampiran.pdf Restricted to Registered users only Download (1MB)

Abstract

Banyumas Regency has a number of interesting tourist attractions that are worth visiting in the area. One of the leading tourist attractions, namely Lokawisata Baturraden, has so much natural wealth and beauty that many visitors come every year. Based on data on the number of visitors obtained from the Baturraden Tourism Office for 2014-2023, the number of visitors always increased in the first five years. In 2018, the number of visitors to the Baturraden Lokawisata increased by 715663 people. In 2019, the number of visitors to the Baturraden Lokawisata decreased due to Covid-19. Based on this, it is necessary to forecast the number of visitors at Baturraden Lokawisata for the next one year period to assist the Baturraden Lokawisata authorities in managing lokawisata and improving services to visitors. The time series method is used to predict the number of visitors at the Baturraden Lokawisata in this research, namely Holt Winter's Exponential Smoothing (HWES) additive and ARIMA. Selecting the best model from these two methods, namely selecting the model with the smallest RMSE and MAD values. With the help of R Studio software, in the additive HWES model the best model was obtained with parameters ; and where the RMSE value is 72.04 and MAD 52.33. Meanwhile, the ARIMA model obtained the best model, namely ARIMA(7, 1, 7) with RMSE values of 52.19 and MAD 43.71. Next, compare the two models which have the smallest RMSE and MAD values so that the best model is obtained, namely ARIMA(7, 1, 7) to predict the number of visitors at Baturraden Lokawisata for the period 2024. The results of forecasting the number of visitors at the Baturraden Lokawisata in 2024 have a MAD value of 43.71. Keywords : ARIMA; Holt Winter's Exponential Smoothing; Forecasting; Time Series; Number of visitors;

Actions (login required)

View Item